CROWDSOURCED FORECASTING IN A NUTSHELL

Have you ever made an online prediction about who will win the next Champions League? Did you ever take a look at a tennis player's past winnings so you could predict who will be the next ATP leader? Then you have already contributed to the crowdsourced forecasting community.

Crowdsourced forecasting is the process of a community making future predictions. The community analyses present and past data or other sources of information. Sometimes, forecasters appeal to their own general knowledge and personal experiences.

The Brier score is a function that measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. It's used when predictions must assign different probabilities to mutually exclusive results. All probabilities must sum to 1, since each individual probability is in the range of 0 to 1. The Brier score is a tool of calibrating probabilistic predictions. It is also known as a “cost function”.

Our forecasters make predictions on a series of events. These comprise of 4 particular categories: economics, politics, entertainment and sports. On the right, you have a display of the evolution of the Brier score. Each category shows the accuracy of all-time predictions.

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Evolution of Brier Score per Category

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OUTCOMES OF FORECASTED EVENTS

Check out a series of events predicted by our forecasters!
Each potential outcome has a different likelihood of coming true. That's because there are different degrees of probability given by forecasters.

BRAIN POWERED FORECASTERS

So how did the Brier score get to be so accurate?
The community grew from a few predictors to a large panel of knowledgeable forecasters. The general Brier score is ChecktheCrowd’s statement over time. It shows the accuracy of forecasts blended into a unique recipe of data analysis and wisdom of the crowds.

What's your benefit?
Take, for example, the over mediatized World Football Championship.
Who will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup?
event added on February 15 2018 and closed on July 15 2018
1.013 forecasts
Wired
Brazil
22%
Questia Survey
Brazil
21.1%
Good Judgment
Germany
32%
FiveThirtyEight
Brazil
19%
What has THE CROWD predicted
45% Croatia
60% France
32% Spain
65% Brazil
48% Germany
56% England
56% Spain
25% Croatia
51.2%% France
We aggregated and modelled all these crowd predictions.
Check the Crowd predicted there is a 51.2% chance for France to win the World Cup.
You can be one step ahead your competition....
....by bringing the wisdom of the Crowds to your business!
CheckTheCrowd
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our product

The unique recipe put into our product consists of a mélange of data analysis combined with our community’s predictions. It can predict specific results in sports, entertainment, economics and politics. Our inspiration stems from the ox parabola in which hundreds of people had to guess the weight of an ox. Some of them estimated too high while others guessed too low. Unexpectedly, the average came very close to the actual weight. This proved that the all-time accuracy of the crowd was impeccable, even though many individual guesses were incorrect. We present you: CheckTheCrowd.

Step by step guide on how our users make predictions based on their prior knowledge
Figures

Find out how the system performs and access the forecasters’ generic activity.

175 Events
9113 Unique Forecasters
109105 Predictions
63 Events
4879 Unique Forecasters
28815 Predictions
47 Events
7429 Unique Forecasters
28680 Predictions
34 Events
5893 Unique Forecasters
34622 Predictions
31 Events
4756 Unique Forecasters
16988 Predictions
Contact

Let’s talk about how you can bring wisdom of the crowds into your life!

E-mail: contact@checkthecrowd.com